Weighted Eredivisie top scorers after four matches: Bony, Mulenga and Musa

Posted on 29 August 2011

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EREDIVISIE TOP SCORERS 2011/12

Rank Player Team Points Goals
1 Bony Vitesse 2.23 3
2 Mulenga Utrecht 2.11 4
3 Musa VVV 1.92 3
4 Everton Heracles 1.77 2
5 Mertens PSV 1.74 6
6 Poepon De Graafschap 1.67 2
7 Cabral Feyenoord 1.64 3
8 Assaidi Heerenveen 1.61 2
9 Sigthorsson Ajax 1.60 4
10 Malki Roda 1.58 1
11 Fernandez Feyenoord 1.52 2
12 Plet Heracles 1.45 3
13 Sulejmani Ajax 1.39 3
14 Bacuna Groningen 1.37 3
15 Fer Feyenoord 1.28 2
16 Janko Twente 1.23 5
17 Dost Heerenveen 1.17 2
18 Viergever AZ 1.11 2
19 Van Peppen RKC 1.04 1
20 Van de Pavert De Graafschap 1.00 1

Click for an explanation of Points

With four rounds of Eredivisie matches gone, and last season’s top three teams neatly topping the table already, it’s time to fill in one of the pre-season promises. At the end of last season a weighted top scorer metric was introduced, a metric that computes the amount of points each goal is expected to add to the team’s total, rather than simply valuing each goal equally.

The advantages of such a system is that players that score goals in more difficult circumstances, contributing more to their team’s league position, are rewarded for that effort, while players scoring those late fourth of fifth goal are credited much less. In computing this metric, four variables are included: opposition strength, venue, timing of the goal and, most importantly, goal differential before the goal is scored. An example from the present season should illustrate this well. The goal that was awarded the most points was Wilfried Bony’s 89th minute 2-1 winner for Vitesse over Utrecht, being awarded 1.61 points for changing a near certain draw in a near certain win. Full details on the metric can be found in the original post introducing it.

In contrast to last season’s table, where Bulykin and Vleminckx topped both the conventional top scorer chart and the weighted top scorer chart, albeit in reverse order, after four match rounds of Eredivisie football the contrast between the order in the conventional chart and the weighted chart is striking.

Vitesse’s Wilfried Bony tops the chart, having scored the important late match winning goal against Utrecht (1.61 pts), the 6th minute opening goal in that same match (0.50) and Vitesse’s third goal early in the second half in a 4-0 home victory over low profile VVV (0.12).

The top scorer of the conventional chart, PSV’s Dries Mertens ranks only fifth in the weighted chart, despite scoring six goals in four matches. His average points per goal (0.29) is quite low as five of his six goals were scored rather early in games that PSV was expected to win anyway (three against Excelsior at home and one against newly promoted RKC at home) or when already facing a 0-2 score line (against AZ). His highest rated goal is the 21st minute opening goal away at ADO (0.44).

Over the course of the season 11tegen11 will aim to provide regular updates of both the league table and the weighted top scorer chart. Both will be found under a newly introduced, but rather tiny, button at the upper left hand side of the site.

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